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婚姻状态和死亡率:审视中国的Farr-Bertillon效应——基于1990和2010年人口普查数据

Marital Status and Death Rate:Review Farr-Bertillon Effect in China——Based on Population Census Data of 1990 and 2010

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【作者】 白晓王超

【Author】 BAI Xiao;WANG Chao;Peking Union Medical College,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences;College of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology;

【机构】 中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京工业大学经济与管理学院

【摘要】 西方绝大多数工业化国家无配偶人群(包括未婚、丧偶、离婚)的死亡率比同龄有配偶人群的死亡率高出2-3倍,这种现象被称为Farr-Bertillon效应。在社会科学中很少有在任何时间和任何国家均有效的效应。我国与西方国家有着不同的家庭结构和家庭观念,是否存在Farr-Bertillon效应尚不清楚。本文利用1990年和2010年人口普查数据对婚姻状态和死亡率的关系进行研究。在15-59岁年龄段:30岁之前有过结婚经历而后丧偶或离婚的人群的死亡率比未婚人群高得多;我国相对死亡比高于西方工业化国家;离婚和丧偶对男性的影响更大,这与西方的研究结果基本一致;对未婚人群,在青年段对男性的影响更大,中年段对女性的影响更大,这与日本的研究结果一致。毕竟在亚洲地区,相对于新郎,更看重新娘的健康因素。然而在大多数西方工业化国家,未婚男性相对死亡比始终高于同龄的女性。在60岁及以上年龄段:有配偶人群比无配偶人群的健康状况更好。婚姻对女性老年人健康的保护作用强于男性老年人。上述研究表明中国存在Farr-Bertillon效应,几乎在所有年龄段未婚、离婚或丧偶状态对健康状况都构成潜在的不良影响,但具体表现与西方国家有差异。

【Abstract】 In the majority of western industrialized countries,the death rate of unmarried people(i.e. single,widowed,or divorced)is 2-3 times higher than death rate of married people for all age-groups,which is known as the Farr-Bertillon effect. In the social sciences,few effects are effective at any time and in any country. China and western countries have different family values and family structures,so it is not clear whether the Farr-Bertillon effect exists in China. Therefore,this paper studies the effect of marital status on death rates based on China’s population census data of 1990 and 2010. The investigation leads to the following results. In the 15-59 age group:before 30,the death rate of widowed or divorced people is much higher than the death rate of unmarried people;the relative mortality rations(RMR)in China is higher than RMR in western countries at the same age;divorce and widowhood have a greater impact on male,which is consistent with the results in the western countries;for unmarried people,the impact on male in youth is greater than female,and the impact on female in middle age is greater than male,which are consistent with the findings of the Japanese study. After all,in the Asian region,health is more important factor to the bride than to the groom. However,in most western countries,the RMR of single male is always higher than that of female at the same age. In the 60 and above age group,the health status of married people are better than unmarried people. And the beneficial effects of marriage on healthy status is greater for elderly female than for elderly male. The above studies show that the Farr-Bertillon effect exists in China. The single,divorced,or widowed status in almost all ages has a potential adverse effect on health status,but the specific performances are different from those in western industrialized countries.

【基金】 国家自然科学基金青年项目:基于投资者交互作用的股市异常波动形成机理研究(61603011)
  • 【文献出处】 人口学刊 ,Population Journal , 编辑部邮箱 ,2019年04期
  • 【分类号】C913.1;C924.25
  • 【下载频次】172
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